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Wellington Region Mediated Modelling

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INTRODUCTION

COMPONENTS OF ACTION RESEARCH: CONTEXT, CONTENT AND PROCESS

DISCUSSION

A survey of Regional Councils was undertaken to provide a baseline for the integrated assessment tools that the SP2 program has been tasked to develop and the extent to which such tools are being used; and if so why or why not (van den Belt et al, 2011). As this approach resonated with several Regional Councils, a proposal for the development of a Directory to guide end-users to case studies and information about Integrated Decision Support tools was submitted to MSI for funding (28 February 2011) and accepted on 16 June 2011. The framework used for the SP2 project is defined in "Belt2, Integrated Assessments, vannt10"; in preparation 2011) and the outline for a book on Integrated Multiscale Assessments for Sustainable and Adaptive Systems.

Sustainability" is also considered the normative goal for the transdisciplinary field of Ecological Economics. As the field moves from concept to implementation, the question of "What to keep" and how trade-offs are made from a systems perspective become increasingly important; moving away from a win-win assumption in the short term towards a trade-off situation because the sub-principles of sustainable development are often in conflict with each other. After the "zeitgeist", sustainability as a concept in the SP2 program seems to improve or.

For SP2, the working definition of what we mean by "integration" needs to be both suitable for an urban context and embedded in an awareness of ecosystems and the services they provide. There must be mutual consideration of multiple factors such as ecosystem services, property rights, human well-being, laws and organization of government, incentives for the private sector, and so on. There are a number of key factors that influence when integration is appropriate and likely to succeed.

Brown (2009) further states that successful integration is more likely to be achieved when key stakeholders drive the process and have a sense of ownership than when it is imposed by external agencies. However, the participant's interests have high scores in Economy, but very close or equally important seems to be the Environmental component (natural capital), followed by social capital (see Figure 4). Does this have consequences for the way participants are connected between MM and SDSS?

Participant feedback on who should attend the MM workshops identified the following groups as absent: Iwi/Maori, Ministry of Environment, Business, Ministry of Conservation, Youth, Education and Transport. How useful it is to capture the dialogue in a model for the various organizations that participate. As part of the pre-assessment, we aim to be transparent about the choices we have made in designing the MM process to enable more in-depth reflection after the MM workshops.

Workshop Participant List as of 7 April 2011

Databases and models gathered for “content”

Each land parcel is coded with 6D ANZSIC, with multiple codes possible for each land use parcel. Description: Vector-based GIS layers provide land use classified using Kyoto-compliant land use definitions for GW only. The objective of the LUCAS mapping program is to ensure the availability of data on four key land use classes, viz.

It also includes a 1990 and 2008 land use change layer that has undergone significant quality control to ensure compliance with IPCC Good Practice Guidance (IPCC, 2003). Status: Access to this data is provided on the understanding that the data set held by LUCAS remains the authoritative master copy. So the layer can be used to create either a 1990 or a 2008 land use map, depending on which attribute is symbolized.

Road centrelines: 2007 LINZ digital topographic data V14 via coordinates.com and through council sourced own layers for both ARC, GW. Power transmission lines: 2007 LINZ digital topographic data V14 via coordinates.com for both ARC and GW. Runways and airstrips: 2007 LINZ digital topographic data V14 via coordinates.com for both ARC and GW.

Slope, Soil and others: LENZ level 1, 2 and 4 polygons and grids (six downloads) via coordinates.com for both ARC and GW. Auckland Region: MEL has previously, in collaboration with ARC staff, developed an alignment that brings detailed 2006 zoning information for Auckland City Council (ACC), North Shore City Council (NSCC), Waitakere City Council (WCC), Manukau City Council (MCC), Rodney District Council (RDC), Papakura District Council (PDC) and Franklin District Council (Frankes District Council) to land use classes. Further research is required to determine what GIS zoning data is available from the ARC for Auckland Council's spatial boundaries once they have been determined (which may be now).

However, the ART model is more complicated as it includes important feedbacks between land use change and transport via a link between ART and the Auckland Strategic Planning Model (ASP or "Delta6"). Given the confidential nature of these databases, it is unlikely that the data contained in these databases (the most useful of which is information on maximum water use allocations by volumetric unit per period) will be incorporated into the SDSS. Where possible, data are made available, or modelled, at either a mesh block level or at relevant spatial units for the variable under consideration.

Introductory Letter to participants

A one-on-one one-hour meeting with me and/or Vicky Forgie in March to answer any questions you may have about the project or the workshops. An important part of the questionnaire is your views on certain topics that the workshops should focus on. This will help us prepare a preliminary model for the first workshop on April 7th.

This post-workshop questionnaire is expected to take up to 15 minutes and can be completed over the phone or by mail. If necessary, help with data collection; this can be in the form of forwarding a specific request to the right person or comparing data. As new topics emerge, additional data collection and data interpretation may be required to support the dialogue.

Meetings with individuals or sub-groups between workshops can be organized as necessary to follow up on workshop issues and/or prepare for subsequent workshops. We will compare the wish list to realistic model capabilities and the level of transparency participants want to see in using a model or its output with confidence. The MM is intended to provide a way to increase the transparency of, and confirm (or extend) the assumptions used in the prototype SDSS model for Wellington as part of the Sustainable Pathways 2 program.

The workshops are part of a continuous loop of improving understanding of the development of decision support tools. Unless we hear from you otherwise, you will be contacted by Vicky Forgie shortly to schedule a one-hour individual meeting at a location of your convenience.

Pre-questionnaire

The dialogue in this example will focus on how trends in land use, population and GDP are related and develop a common understanding of the characteristics of such trends when combined. To move towards a better defined topic for the workshops, please consider the following questions: .. and critical thinking about the system that connects the 4 aspects of well-being. The dialogue in this example will focus on how trends in land use, population and GDP are related and develop a shared understanding of the characteristics of such trends when they are.

To move towards a better defined topic for the workshops, please consider the following. What is the predominant medium to long term issue (ie the next 10-40 years) for the Wellington region in terms of integrating the 4 aspects of wellbeing. Please answer the following questions about the state of the problem you identified under question 1.

Where do you think this issue could rank in 2050 under Business As Usual, excluding ongoing initiatives. While we realize that the 4 aspects of well-being are interrelated, please rank the relative. How aware do you think the wider community (i.e. the people living in the Wellington area) is about the issue you identified in Q1.

How concerned do you feel that the wider community (ie the people living in the Wellington region) is about the issue you identified in Q1? The aim of the mediated modeling workshops is to create an integrated picture of the four aspects of well-being for the Wellington region, based on relevant scientific information and knowledge/. Reflecting on the list of workshop participants, how do you think this group rates overall in terms of the following criteria.

Who, if anyone, should be included in the workshops to achieve the goal of inclusiveness; i.e. Based on the list of participants, you perceive that there is currently a consensus in this group. 20 Figure 4 was an average of the ranking of the 4 aspects of well-being showing a predominant economic and ecological interest, followed by social aspects, but cultural aspects lag behind.

Figure

Figure 1  A  qualitative  analysis  of  existing  Region

References

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